Impact of Glacier Mass Balance on Socioeconomic Conditions of the Shigar Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan

Abstract

Shigar Valley, in the Karakoram Range, relies heavily on glaciers for its water resources, which are vital for agriculture, hydropower, and local livelihoods. However, climate variability is causing significant changes in the glacier mass balance, causing socio-economic impacts. Reduced water availability, increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods, and fluctuations in meltwater flows pose significant challenges for feasibility and stability of hydropower generation. The present study aims to analyze the past and future fluctuations in glacier mass balance in the Shigar Valley and assess its impacts on the socioeconomic conditions of the local communities. We use Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to analyze the past dynamics and future trends in mass balance under different climate scenarios by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. This approach can inform water resource management, disaster preparedness, and economic planning, fostering resilience in Shigar Valley's communities. Our findings reveal mixed trends in glacier mass balance highlighting balance gain in some big glaciers particularly during the 1990s confirming the Karakoram Anomaly, while most of the smaller glaciers have been showing negative mass balance. The findings further reveal that more than 50% of the respondents are highly dependent on glacier meltwater for agriculture and other uses, while majority of the respondents reported that they have been adversely affected by glacier dynamics.