Spatio – Temporal Evaluation of Temperature Variability, Trend and Pattern in Jhelum River Basin, Western Himalaya

Abstract

This study examines the variability, increasing or decreasing trends, and patterns of temperature in the Jhelum River Basin, located in the Western Himalayas. Using secondary data sources, temperature data was collected from eight meteorological stations within the basin, provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department. The data covers a 33-years period from 1993 to 2023. Monthly maximum, minimum, and normal temperatures were analyzed for each station. The results indicate varying temperature intensities across different stations due to their wide distribution and differing elevations. The analysis employs the Sen’s Slope Estimation Magnitude (SSEM) based on the Mann-Kendall trend model to detect trends in the temperature data. The findings reveal a general rise in temperatures across all stations. Specifically, the SSEM values for maximum temperatures range from 0.050 in Jhelum to 0.388 in Gharidupatta. Minimum and normal temperatures also show increasing trends, with some stations experiencing stronger rises than others. This study highlights the significant warming trends in the Jhelum River Basin, which could have profound impacts on the region's climate and environment. The insights gained from this research are crucial for developing adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in the Western Himalayas.